This report presents extensive information from recently published findings related to the following two critical questions about climate change: andlt;ULandgt; andlt;LIandgt;What will the future climate be like? andlt;LIandgt;What will the effects be, both good and bad? andlt;/LIandgt;andlt;/ULandgt;Chapter 1 introduces the two main chapters of the report that provide insights to the above two critical questions about climate change. Chapter 2 provides examples from a wide spectrum of scientists, scientific organizations, and the media of contradictions and confusion about whether human-induced climate change is predictable over the time scale of a century. It then explains why such climate change is unpredictable in the traditional deterministic sense. It describes the climate system and documents improvements and remaining uncertainties of global climate models relevant to evaluating human-induced climate change on the century time scale. Climate measurements in Illinois since the mid-19th century document major climate swings not evident in a 50- to 100-year record. Illinois is no warmer or wetter today than it has been over the last 150 years, and extreme precipitation events across the country are reported to be no more frequent than they were a century ago. Important conclusions from these data are that i) regional climate trends over the past 50-100 years that are consistent with theoretical expectations of an enhanced greenhouse effect (for example, higher precipitation and more heavy rainfall events in northern mid-latitudes) do not necessarily establish causality; and ii) global warming has not resulted in warming in all parts of the globe. Chapter 3 focuses on the issue of economic impacts of weather and climate in the United States (US). The first section addresses known financial impacts of recent (1950-2000) weather and climate conditions. Descriptions follow of temporal trends of weather and climate extremes and their impacts, causes for on-going increases in economic impacts, and estimates of future financial impacts under a changed climate. The frequency of most types of storms and droughts either has not changed or has decreased during 1940-2000. Yet, losses (1997 dollars) for most storm types have increased over time. Possible causes for increased losses include a shift in climate related to global warming, questionable insurance practices, and aging infrastructure. Study also shows increasing losses due to societal factors, including population growth, more people residing in more weather vulnerable areas, shifts in business-product development that are weather sensitive, and growing wealth. Various studies of weather- and climate-induced economic impacts were used to develop national loss and gain estimates. Projections for the US, depending upon varying assumptions about the future climate (combinations of warmer, wetter, drier, or more storms), show annual climate-related losses ranging from $2 billion to $69 billion, and others estimate annual gains of $30 billion to $40 billion. In all cases, the projected outcomes are small in relation to the expected Gross Domestic Product.
This circular presents basic information needed to plan and develop a domestic groundwater supply. A logical step-by-step planning summary is outlined. Accepted and recommended methods for a prospective owner of a domestic well to determine his water requirements and to gather meaningful information for planning his supply are presented. Also included are brief discussions on the occurrence, movement, availability, and quality of groundwater in Illinois, and the commonly used types of wells and pumps.
Demand for water in Illinois is increasing, and water shortages in the Chicago metropolitan area have been projected. There are, however, limits to the availability of clean water at a reasonable cost. Limitsto water availability are imposed by a number of factors including droughts, legal requirements to maintain minimum flows in rivers and streams, water recharge rates, and a decree of the United States Supreme Court limiting withdrawal of water from Lake Michigan. In addition, the specter of regional climate change could pose the greatest threat to Illinois water supplies over the long term: some projections show the possibility of persistent floods, whereas other projections show persistent droughts. Additional sources of water do exist and can be tapped, but the cost of providing clean water increases with the necessity of water treatment, storage, and distribution, and the mitigation of impacts of new withdrawals on existing water supplies. Long lead times also are needed to construct major water projects. Unless the water supplies of Illinois are planned and managed in a comprehensive, regional, and visionary manner--based on the concept of renewable water supply capacity--water shortages could soon occur in some parts of the state. Water supply planning and management should be based on improved understanding and prediction of water supply and demand, and risk assessment. The goal of this plan is to provide a framework for Illinois State Water Survey (ISWS) water supply programs and to document those studies that ISWS, working with others, needs to conduct to provide Illinois with comprehensive technical data and information, models, and training for water supply planning and management. The following are the main tasks described in the plan: Collaborate with other organizations to coordinate and integrate relevant programs, set priorities, plan activities, conduct studies, and seek additional resources. Assemble, archive, digitize, analyze, and synthesize existing data. Determine areas of possible water shortages as a basis for setting priorities. Evaluate the quantity and quality of water resources throughout the state as they relate to water supply. Provide yield estimates for major aquifers and surface waters under variable and changing climatic conditions. Identify critical data gaps and conduct field studies to gather additional data and monitor the state's water resources. Evaluate opportunities for water conservation and reuse. Interpret and apply technical and economic data to assist and train water resource planners and managers. Develop and improve methods and models to evaluate water resources. Develop new quality-assured databases and an Internet-based decision support system to make data and models easily available for application by other agencies, professionals, and the general public. The rate and order of implementation of these studies will depend upon the level and sources of funds and priorities and upon collaborative efforts with other organizations. Existing resources are addressing many of these topics, but resources are limited so progress will be slow. A major infusion of new resources is needed for timely implementation of the studies described.
As part of a study to estimate corn and soybean yields using satellite remote sensing techniques, biomass measurements, ground-level spectral measurements, and weather and energy flux measurements were taken at three locations in McLean County, Illinois. The locations were near Colfax, Lexington, and Stanford, Illinois. Plant samples and leaf area measurements were taken during the weeks of 12-17 June, 26-30 June, 10-14 July, 31 July-4 August, and 14-18 August 2000 in McLean County, Illinois. Corn plants were separated into leaf, stem, husk, and ear components, and soybean plants into leaf, stem, and pod components. The wet weights of the different plant parts were determined. To determine the plant dry biomass, the plant parts were dried in an oven until there was no weight change over two consecutive days. Leaf area for both corn and soybean canopies was measured using a LiCor-2000 instrument. Corn leaf area was also determined by manual measurements of leaf length and width. The smallest corn and soybean plants were at the Lexington location. The largest corn plants were at Colfax, and the largest soybean plants were at Stanford. The smaller plants at Lexington were a result of sandier soils containing less organic matter than the soils at either Stanford or Colfax. Although final yield was not measured as part of this sampling protocol, the size of the plants would indicate that Lexington should have the smallest corn and soybean yields, while the highest corn yields should have occurred at Colfax, and the highest soybean yields at Stanford.
This report on the 1993 flood on the Mississippi River in Illinois and on the lower reaches of the Illinois River was prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey with assistance from the Illinois Department of Transportation/Division of Water Resources and the Illinois Natural History Survey. The report begins with a brief description of the physical setting of the Upper Mississippi River System, including historical facts on climate, precipitation, hydrology, and floods. The 1993 flood is discussed with regard to precipitation, soil moisture, stages, flows, levee breaches, and discharge through levee breaches. Also discussed are impacts of the flood on social, economic, hydraulic and hydrologic, and environmental aspects of the river and its residents. Impacts on water quality, the environment, and public water supplies, including the beneficial and detrimental aspects of the flood, also are included. The lessons learned from this flood focus on the performance of the levees, governmental responses, the effects of flood fighting, change in stages due to levee breaches, flood modeling, and the lack of information dissemination to the public on the technical aspects of the flood. These lessons point out information gaps and the need for research in the areas of hydraulics and hydrology, meteorology, sediment transport and sedimentation, surface and groundwater interactions, water quality, and levees. The report presents a comprehensive summary of the 1993 flood as far as climate, hydrology, and hydraulics are concerned.
The Illinois River is at a crossroads. All the events in its history, both natural and those accomplished through human intervention, are now poised to change the river in ways that may render it unrecognizable in our own lifetimes. This publication is intended to introduce you to the Illinois River and the issues that will shortly determine its very survival.
A detailed climatological study of all severe winter storms occurring in Illinois during the 1900-1960 period has been pursued to obtain extensive information concerning these frequently quite damaging snow and ice storms. This study provides information that enlarges our knowledge of the basic climatological aspects of winter storms, statistics concerning the amount and types of damage they produce, descriptions of the meteorological conditions producing these storms, and data helpful in the design and planning for these events.
The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) National Regional Nutrient Criteria Development Program is developing regional-specific criteria for total nitrogen concentrations in surface waters. These criteria will provide the foundation for states to set total nitrogen standards to remedy impairments caused by nutrient overenrichment and to protect designated uses. Reference conditions representing minimally impacted surface waters will be developed for each ecoregion. All nutrient criteria must be based on sound scientific rationale. The first element of a nutrient criterion identified by USEPA is "... historical data and other information to provide an overall perspective on the status of the resource." The second element includes " ... a collective reference condition describing the current status." A further element requires "... attention to downstream consequences." The USEPA recognizes that nutrient concentrations in surface waters are primarily affected by the rate of weathering and erosion from watershed soils. Human activity can affect on the natural load of nutrient inputs to surface waters through, for example, vegetation disturbance of the vegetation, and addition of nutrient-containing material, such as fertilizer. At the heart of the overenrichment problem are the rates of production and decomposition of organic materials, of which nitrogen is a component. This report provides a contribution to the setting of reference/background conditions for Illinois through the evaluation of the current status of water resources against historical conditions, and some attention to downstream consequences. A particular focus of downstream consequences is hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico, allegedly caused by the flux of excess nitrogen from the Upper Mississippi, Ohio, and Missouri River Basins. The concept of biogeochemical cycling provides an appropriate and necessary framework for understanding landscape influences on water quality throughout the Illinois River Basin. Changes in the Illinois River Valley and its system of tributary streams and lakes are well recognized, but this is the first attempt to assess in some detail how such changes have affected the aquatic carbon, oxygen, and nitrogen cycles; especially the impact of such watershed changes on the nature and quantity of aquatic nitrogen, as well as on the nitrogen cycle within the terrestrial reservoir. This is seen in the accompanying time line of the estimated nitrogen richness of the Illinois landscape. Scientists studying soils and crops from the mid-19th through mid-20th centuries documented that human activities have greatly altered the natural nitrogen cycle. Cultivation of virgin land typically depleted nitrogen and carbon stored in these reservoirs by about 50 percent in the first 60-70 years of cultivation. Some of this nitrogen was transferred to surface waters and ground waters. The depletion of nitrogen from soils in the Mississippi River Basin was so great that crop yields declined throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries. By mid-20th century, the extensive use of nitrogen fertilizer, improved plant varieties, and agronomic practices increased crop yields. Nitrogen fertilizer also began to replenish some of the large amounts of nitrogen previously removed from the soil. In the 1970s, profound changes occurred in the perception of the natural nitrogen cycle and human modification of that cycle. The nitrogen cycle, and human impacts on it came to be defined in terms of atmospheric nitrogen fixation and the return of nitrogen gases by nitrification/denitrification. The 99 percent of the nitrogen cycle which was otherwise cycled within and between the large soil, sediment, and plant reservoirs were no longer acknowledged. From this new definition of the nitrogen cycle, it was concluded that human activities, especially fossil-fuel combustion and fertilizer use, had doubled the nitrogen cycle and many lands, including much of Illinois, had become nitrogen saturated. Increasing concentrations of nitrate-nitrogen in surface waters were given as evidence of nitrogen saturation and leakage. This new limited edition of the nitrogen cycle became cast in concrete and is referred to in this report as "the new, standing nitrogen-cycle paradigm." This report uses the earlier, scientifically more complete and defensible definition of the nitrogen cycle, which includes recognition of the magnitude and importance of soil-plant reservoirs and exchanges. It uses extensive scientific documentation of major changes in ecosystems and soil nitrogen that have occurred over centuries, to place into perspective the present status of nitrogen resources -- as required by USEPA. This report examines the impact on nitrogen concentrations in surface waters in Illinois during occupation of the land by Native Americans, bison, and many other animals and birds. Theoretical impacts are complemented by written accounts of early settlers and scientific observations made under similar conditions. It is concluded that the landscape and surface waters were more nitrogen saturated at this time than today. These pre-European-settlement conditions were selected as the reference/background conditions. Just prior to and during the period of early European settlement, the populations of Native Americans and bison were eliminated and the landscape became less nitrogen saturated. Nevertheless, even in the 1820s, the Illinois River was hypertrophic, i.e. nutrient overenriched. As late as the 1850s, the amount of eroded soil transported by the Mississippi River was more than twice that transported in recent decades. Since soil erosion is reported to be the major sort of N delivery from agricultural lands, the N load in the Mississippi River was declining. The average annual concentration of total nitrogen in the Lower Illinois River in 1894-1899 was 3.68 mg N/l, and additional large amounts of nitrogen not measured were stored in plankton and luxuriant aquatic vegetation and transported downstream in copious amounts of organic debris. Allowing for the unmeasured flux of nitrogen as plankton and for low flow, the adjusted average annual concentration of total nitrogen in the Lower Illinois River in 1894-1899 is estimated to have been about 5.5 mg N/l. This report also examines the impact of European settlement and agriculture on the nitrogen cycle and water quality. Scientific data show that the average concentration of total nitrogen in the Lower Illinois River increased to about 10 mg N/l by mid-20th century and subsequently decreased to 4.8 mg N/l in the 1990s. The annual concentration of nitrate in the Lower Illinois River peaked at about 6.2 mg N/l in 1967-1971 and subsequently decreased to about 3.8 mg N/l in 1993-1998. These improvements in water quality are associated with an increasing amount of dissolved oxygen in the river. The reductions in the concentrations of all forms of nitrogen are attributable to both point- and nonpoint-source pollution control. The main conclusions of this report are that, in establishing scientifically sound reference/background conditions, it is necessary to quantify in a common unit all forms of nitrogen (in solution, as solids, and as gases; and organic and inorganic forms) and all sources, reservoirs, transformations, and fluxes of nitrogen in a common unit; and to understand interactions between nitrogen and other biogeochemical cycles of, for example, water, oxygen, carbon, and phosphorous. Criteria for setting nitrogen standards must recognize the great complexity of the nitrogen cycle and its interdependence with other variables, cycles, and anthropogenic influences.
In response to expanding urban development, the use of Lake Michigan and other sources for public water supplies, and a growing interest in regional water resources development, this report provides a detailed discussion of groundwater withdrawals and water levels in northeastern Illinois. The water-level portion of this report covers a 15-county area from Lake Michigan to north-central Illinois and from the Wisconsin border south to Kankakee County. Particular emphasis, however, has been given to deep well pumpage in the eight counties of the Chicago region because of the significant shift in the late twentieth century from groundwater supplies of the deep bedrock aquifers to Lake Michigan and other sources. This report details the fall 2000 water-level measurement of wells reaching to the St.Peter and Ironton-Galesville sandstones (deep bedrock aquifers), provides a map illustrating the slope of groundwater levels, and compares the fall 2000 levels to the fall 1995 observations. The rapid decrease in groundwater pumpage from the deep bedrock aquifers during the 1980s initially resulted in a rapid recovery of groundwater levels. However, the rate of water-level change has slowed since the mid-1990s. The greatest recovery during the past five years occurred in Cook County. Groundwater levels in several wells were observed to have risen more than 50 feet since 1995. Where the deep bedrock aquifers of Cambrian-Ordovician age continue to be used, declines in groundwater levels were observed. Most notable declines were in southeastern Kane and northern Kendall Counties, southwestern Lake County, and southeastern McHenry County. Outside the Chicago region, water-level declines were observed in deep wells at Loves Park in Winnebago County and in the vicinity of DeKalb and Sycamore in DeKalb County.
Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration is important to climate change and cropland agriculture. Crops naturally use the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2), from the atmosphere; the greater the crop productivity, the greater the amount of CO2 used. Agronomic practices that enhance sequestration of crop biomass in soil as SOC also enhance removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, and improve and sustain soil fertility. To effectively reduce the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and mitigate climate change, sequestration of SOC must be long term, defined as decades or longer. This report presents a review and synthesis of scientific understanding of SOC sequestration, based on the history and genesis of soils and vegetation in Illinois, and the response of SOC and crops to agronomic practices. Recommendations for future cropland SOC research are made. The scientific literature is reviewed in light of the Illinois conditions affecting the five interactive soil-forming factors that are widely recognized (biology, parent material, climate, topography, and time). The literature also shows that human activity can be considered a sixth soil-forming factor. Native American land-use practices of whole ecosystem manipulation were important in governing soil formation and SOC contents in Illinois, as were the land-use practices of the settlers who displaced them. An important finding of this work is that to reduce the atmospheric CO2 content and sustain cropland agriculture, SOC must be sequestered throughout the soil profile. The modern literature reports SOC increases when tillage is changed from conventional to conservation tillage practices. However, SOC measurements are surficial, usually no more than the top 30 cm, with most of the C being sequestered in the top 15 cm. The unstated assumption in the modern literature is that surficial SOC changes represent all the SOC changes in the soil profile. This work shows that the SOC losses in the deeper soil layers may overwhelm surficial SOC increases. In order to assert that C is being sequestered in the soil, the whole-soil profile must be considered. It is recommended that future research into SOC sequestration be conducted from a whole-plant/whole-soil perspective in a soil genesis context using the following strategies. Mine the Literature. Most of the literature needed to provide the requisite whole-plant/whole-soil perspective and soil genesis context is scattered and not organized, summarized, or synthesized in the current SOC sequestration literature. The evolution of SOC sequestration research has been a narrowing of perspective away from the more holistic whole-plant/whole-soil perspective of the foundational agronomic literature to the perspective of the near-surface soil layer. This vast foundational literature needs to be located, restored, and incorporated with the current literature on crop rhizosphere and C and nutrient cycles throughout the whole-soil profile, soil genesis, soil fertility, subsoil amelioration, and other literatures to be organized, summarized, and synthesized into the SOC sequestration literature. Long-term Whole Plant/Whole Soil Monitoring and Assessment. Assessment of the effects of agronomic practices on SOC must be expanded to include the whole-soil profile. Improved estimates of presettlement soil SOC contents are needed to better assess SOC loss and SOC sequestration potential of Illinois' prairie and forest soils. The magnitude and swiftness with which natural factors govern SOC contents need to be better identified and quantified while incorporating a more comprehensive definition of soil aging along with consideration of presettlement and postsettlement anthropogenic landscape management practices as soil-forming factors. SOC Sequestration Research. Finally, research on how agronomic practices can increase SOC throughout the soil profile needs to be conducted from a whole-plant/whole-soil perspective in a soil genesis context. This report indicates that the optimal way to sequester SOC is to convert land back to native prairie, burn frequently, add fertilizers, and remove anthropogenic surface and subsurface drainage. Such an approach is not practical. Constraints on optimizing cropland SOC sequestration include: 1) the need to maintain good soil drainage in Illinois soils for timely spring planting that allows for growth of long-season corn hybrids and soybean varieties; and 2) maintaining soil-nutrient levels that do not result in water-quality issues. Within these constraints, the authors hypothesize that SOC sequestration can best be done by 1) developing balanced soil-fertility programs and other agronomic practices that restore soil nutrients to levels optimum for plant growth, promote movement of plant nutrients throughout the root zone using organic and/or inorganic carriers, and promote deep rooting of plants with minimal mechanical disturbance of the soil by tillage; and 2) developing chemical pest control programs that minimize the effects of pesticides on soil bacteria, and microfauna and macrofauna, thus promoting conversion of biomass to SOC, pedoturbation and net movement of SOC through the soil profile, and creation of soil structure and aggregation that optimize biomass production and conversion to stabilized SOC. Research on the development of these practices must include evaluation of nutrient movement into ground and surface waters. Losses of SOC have occurred on the order of the century time scale. SOC sequestration and the measure of its success (permanence of SOC sequestration) are also necessarily measured on the order of the century time scale. Therefore, long-term (20- to 30-year) agronomic SOC sequestration research at both the farm and individual plot level needs to be designed and conducted for hypothesis and model testing, as well as evaluation of the permanence of SOC in the surface and whole-soil profile. Even longer term research needs to be designed and conducted for hypothesis refinement and for monitoring.